Financial pragmatism is finally beginning to eclipse technological pipe dreams in the generative AI sector. According to Bloomberg, SoftBank has been forced to scale back its ambitions for a massive loan backed by its stake in OpenAI. Instead of the planned $10 billion, Masayoshi Son will receive no more than $6 billion as a group of major lenders suddenly rediscovered the virtue of caution.
Sources close to the matter suggest that financiers simply do not know how to verify the "market" value of a private startup whose valuation is largely crafted in press releases. The deal is structured as a margin loan, with SoftBank’s equity in OpenAI serving as collateral. The fact that banks demanded a 40% haircut is more than a technicality—it is a clear signal to the market.
Institutional investors are no longer willing to accept OpenAI’s $150 billion-plus valuation as hard currency. When it comes to handing over cold hard cash against non-public assets, faith in the "new era" of AI immediately collides with the impossibility of confirming share liquidity. The loan reportedly carries a two-year term with an option for a one-year extension, a short horizon that suggests bankers are warily anticipating a market correction or, at the very least, some much-needed clarity.
Despite this, SoftBank continues to go all-in. The Japanese holding company invested in Sam Altman’s firm in September 2024 and has committed to the massive "Stargate" infrastructure project. But even ambitious plans for data centers and rumors of a late 2025 IPO were not enough to convince lenders to turn a blind eye to the risks.
The situation exposes a widening rift between venture capital fantasies and banking realities. While Altman draws up plans of national significance, bankers are evaluating his brainchild with cold cynicism. Faith in technological breakthroughs remains unshakable only until someone asks for a billion-dollar check. It seems the era where the mere mention of "AI" guaranteed an unlimited line of credit has officially come to an end.